一 | 1月14日，韩国宪法裁判所（即宪法法院）对弹劾尹锡悦一案进行第一次正式开庭审理。这次庭审，尹锡悦可以出庭自我辩护。但尹锡悦方面在12日就明确表示，尹锡悦将不出席，由他的律师代理出庭，表达立场。尹锡悦一直声称自己宣布戒严有正当理由，他为什么要放弃出庭自我辩护的机会？尹锡悦方面的理由，总统的人身安全得不到保障。 UNITED NATIONS -- Growing gang violence in Haiti is devastating the lives of its people, with major crimes rising to a new high, the U.N. special envoy for the conflict-wracked Caribbean nations said Monday.Maria Isabel Salvador told the U.N. Security Council that every day sees gangs engaging in killings, sexual violence including collective rapes and mutilation, and kidnapping. She pointed to last week's incident in which gang members dressed as police officers kidnapped the secretary general of the High Transitional Council, which is responsible for ensuring that long-delayed elections are held.Salvador said the security crisis is even more complex because vigilante groups that have taken to fighting the gangs are still active. Between April 24 and Sept. 30, she said, the U.N. political mission “registered the lynching of at least 395 alleged gang members across all 10 departments of Haiti by the so called `Bwa Kale’ vigilante movement.”Catherine Russell, head of the U.N. children’s agency UNICEF, echoed Salvador, telling the council: “The crisis in Haiti grows worse by the day.”An estimated 2 million people, including 1.6 million women and children, live in areas under gang control, she said, and children are getting killed and injured in crossfire, some on the way to school. “Others are being forcibly recruited or they are joining armed groups out of sheer desperation,” Russell said.She said half of Haiti’s population, including 3 million children, need aid — and half of those in need aren’t getting it because of insecurity and a lack of funding. So far, this year, she said, the U.N. has received barely 25% of the $720 million it needs for humanitarian needs in the country.Since 2022, Russell said, UNICEF has seen “an unprecedented 30% increase in the number of Haitian children suffering from severe wasting” — to more than 115,000. Severe wasting is the most lethal type of malnutrition, in which food is so lacking that a child’s immune system is compromised, according to UNICEF.“The malnutrition crisis coincides with an ongoing cholera outbreak — in which nearly half of the more than suspected cases are children under 14,” Russell added. Salvador stressed “the enormous significance” of the Security Council’s Oct. 2 approval of a resolution authorizing a multinational force led by Kenya to deploy in Haiti to help combat gangs. Kenya’s Cabinet gave its approval Oct. 13, but its Parliament still must sign off.U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a report to the council circulated Monday welcomed Kenya’s offer and thanked Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas and Jamaica for publicly committing to contributing personnel to the mission.The council’s approval came nearly a year after Haiti’s prime minister called for the immediate deployment of an armed force, in hopes it could quell gang violence and restore security so Haiti can hold elections. Haiti lost its last democratically elected institution in January, when the terms of 10 remaining senators expired, leaving not a single lawmaker in the House or Senate. Since the July 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, Prime Minister Ariel Henry has been governing with the backing of the international community.Salvador told the council she continues to engage with a wide range of Haitians, “encouraging their full commitment to national dialogue efforts to get onto a path to elections to fully re-establish democratic institutions and the rule of law.”But, she said, “significant differences persist, all of which are critical to placing Haiti on a clear path to elections,” adding that “the efforts towards elections are not moving at a desired pace.”。尹锡悦律师团的律师尹甲根表示，高级公职人员犯罪调查处（公调处）和警察厅国家侦查本部，一直“想以非法方式，执行非法、无效的拘留令”，让总统的人身安全令人担忧。他说，尹锡悦总统出庭的前提是，人身安全和警卫问题得到解决，只要解决了安全问题，他将随时出庭受审。公调处在申请到首尔西部地方法院的拘留令后，曾于1月3日试图逮捕尹锡悦，结果被总统警卫处瓦解。随后在第一个拘留令到期后，公调处又向该法院申请了第二个逮捕令。也就是说，目前公调处还在尝试逮捕尹锡悦。
二 | 但因为尹锡悦的总统官邸加强了防卫，犹如一座堡垒，公调处和警方也无可奈何。尹锡悦阵营的意思是，如果尹锡悦去宪法法院进行自我辩护，公调处和警方可能借机逮捕他。在这种情况下，尹锡悦阵营决定，安全第一，放弃第一次辩护的机会。其实，这背后还是双方关于针对尹锡悦的逮捕令的合法性之争。尹锡悦方面坚持认为，公调处的管辖法院是首尔中央地方法院，不是首尔西部地方法院，所以就算申请逮捕令，也不能由首尔西部地方法院签署。尹锡悦方面还向宪法法院提出上诉，要求审查、裁决这个逮捕令的合法性。但公调处认为自己的程序合法，是尹锡悦非法。当然，尹锡悦拒绝出庭的一个策略也可能是，想借缺席宪法法院审理，向公调处施压。
三 | 针对尹锡悦的弹劾和调查，有两条战线，一条是公调处试图拘留、审查尹锡悦。另一条是宪法法院审理。宪法法院的审理，应该比公调处的逮捕令更具权威性和合法性，如果能说服宪法法院，认为公调处的逮捕威胁，已经令尹锡悦无法出庭，妨碍了宪法审理，就有可能进一步打击公调处的逮捕计划。而且在这个策略背后，还有更深层次的原因。即尹锡悦和执政党希望以拖待变，在所有问题上都要争一争，拖一下时间，希望借时间改变局面。这个策略目前看来也有一定效果。1月10日韩国的一份民调显示，虽然仍然有60%的受访者认为尹锡悦应该遭到弹劾，但是执政党国民力量党和在野党共同民主党的支持率却发生了令人注意的变化。根据这份民调，国民力量党的支持率为34%，比三个星期前上升了10%，而共同民主党支持率为36%，比三个星期前下降了12%。两党的支持率回到戒严前的情况。这说明，就算尹锡悦被弹劾被解职，执政党的局面也比三个星期前好转了很多。
四 | 这就可以看出，尹锡悦和执政党“拖”的策略有效果。在野党非常着急想逮捕尹锡悦，尽快解决事件也有道理。当然，尹锡悦第一次庭审不出庭影响不大。
五 | 但安排在16日进行的第二次庭审中，如果他还不出庭，那么宪法法院将进行缺席审理。因此尹锡悦阵营在宪法审理这一关，还有什么招数可以继续拖，也很值得观察。文丨羊城晚报国际评论员 钱克锦编辑：林丽爱 来源：羊城晚报•羊城派。
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